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Imagine spec scripts sales divided into a pie chart of sale probability and potential.

The biggest slice of the pie would go to Hot New Writers With a Unique Concept, Great Rep and Attachments. I’ll translate to, say, 75%.

The next slice is much smaller: Promising New Writers With a Unique Concept, Good Rep, No Attachments but Fans of the Work. Let’s call this 15%.

Then, much, much smaller slices would be evenly divided among Risky/Provocative Passion Projects With Influential Fans and Freakishly Lucky Diablo Cody Types. Let’s give those 5% each.

To reiterate:

- Hot New Writer, Unique Concept, Great Rep – attachments
- Promising Writer, Unique Concept, Good Rep – no attachments but fans
- Risky/Provocative with fans
- Freakishly Lucky

So goal one is to work hard to become the Hot Writer with Great Concepts – regardless of the topicality of your script. Then you can worry about when to query and how your script/movie would be marketed. But if you have an idea for a seasonal script and you just love it and you are certain that it is totally unique and compelling – go for it.

Definitions of Hot New Writer would include but are not limited to:

You’ve made it onto the Black List. You have influential and powerful fans of your work. You have won the Nicholl Competition. You’re a Disney Fellow. Variety noted that you are among the “top ten writers to watch.” How you arrived at this level of hotness is a confluence of: talent, luck, opportunity, timing and connections. You’re probably young. You probably live in Los Angeles. You have a great backstory. Possibly you were a stripper or sandwich board guy standing on the sidewalk hawking something weird. You have an amiable personality and you are good in a room.

From http://rougewave.blogspot.com

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